Coffee Industry in the Age of Disaster Strikes

Those aromatic cups of coffee we enjoy are becoming more precious than ever. Not just for their distinctive flavors, but because of the growing threats to the very existence of this valuable resource.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate in human history. A 1.1°C increase compared to pre-industrial levels might seem insignificant, but for coffee plants – a species extremely sensitive to temperature and rainfall – this is an existential threat. Arabica, the coffee species accounting for 60% of global production, only thrives optimally in a narrow temperature range of 18-21°C. Each additional degree Celsius not only reduces yield but also increases the risk of disease and pest infestation.

According to research from the World Resources Institute (WRI), over 80% of the world’s coffee-growing regions are located in areas with high risk of natural disasters. These challenges are not distant future concerns but are unfolding right now: the Myanmar earthquake (2025), prolonged drought in Brazil (2021), and severe flooding in Colombia (2022) are the clearest evidence.

In this context, XLIII Coffee’s philosophy of “seeking quality raw materials with maximum traceability” becomes more crucial than ever. To protect an industry under threat, understanding origins, empathizing with producers, and building sustainable relationships is no longer optional but a survival necessity.

Southeast Asia – The “Pacific Ring of Fire”

Southeast Asia – providing approximately 30% of global coffee production – faces a dual threat: being situated within the “Ring of Fire” with intense seismic activity while simultaneously experiencing increasingly severe impacts of climate change.

Over the past 50 years, Indonesia has recorded more than 500 earthquakes with magnitudes above 6.0, with an alarming increase in frequency since 2000. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the number of major earthquakes (>6.0) in this region has increased by 15% in the past two decades. The Arabica coffee regions in North Sumatra and Robusta coffee areas in Java lie entirely within high-risk seismic zones.

The recent earthquake in Myanmar (2025) with a magnitude of 7.7 caused severe damage to Shan State – the region producing most of the country’s specialty coffee. Preliminary statistics from the Myanmar Coffee Association indicate that approximately 15% of coffee-growing areas were affected, with many processing facilities completely destroyed. Particularly, road infrastructure and the Ava Bridge suffered serious damage, disrupting the supply chain not only this year but potentially extending to subsequent harvests.

Beyond earthquakes, volcanic activity poses a constant threat. Indonesia has 127 active volcanoes, more than any other country in the world. Paradoxically, volcanic soil is ideal for coffee cultivation due to its rich mineral content. The eruption of Mount Sinabung in Sumatra, which began in 2010 and continued until 2018, affected 15,000 hectares of agricultural land, including 5,000 hectares of coffee.

Vietnam – the world’s second-largest coffee producer – may experience fewer earthquakes but frequently suffers from typhoons and flooding. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam is affected by an average of 8-10 typhoons annually, with a 20% increase in frequency over the past decade. The Central Highlands – Vietnam’s coffee production center – while not directly impacted by typhoons, regularly faces drought and extreme rainfall events. In 2016, severe drought reduced Vietnam’s coffee production by 20%.

Latin America – Earthquakes and Storms

Latin America – the cradle of world coffee – also faces increasingly severe geological and climatic challenges.

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua rank among the top 10 countries most severely affected by extreme weather events during the period 2000-2019. Notably, all three countries produce high-quality specialty coffee.

In 2020, hurricanes Eta and Iota devastated Central America within just two weeks. In Guatemala, 130,000 hectares of cultivated land were affected, including 30,000 hectares of coffee. Anacafé (Guatemala’s National Coffee Association) estimated damages at approximately $60 million, impacting the livelihoods of over 125,000 farming families. Concerningly, many affected areas were coffee-growing regions above 1,500 meters – locations that produce the highest quality beans.

Research from Mexico’s National Autonomous University (UNAM) reveals an alarming connection between coffee production activities and soil erosion following natural disasters. High-elevation areas with steep slopes – ideal for arabica coffee – are extremely vulnerable to landslides after heavy rainfall. A hectare of traditionally cultivated coffee land (without shade trees) can lose up to 42 tons of fertile soil after a single heavy rain event.

Colombia – the world’s leading producer of Arabica coffee – experienced one of its most severe La Niña rainy seasons in history during 2022. Rainfall increased by 40% compared to the multi-year average, causing over 200 landslides and affecting 17% of coffee-growing areas. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), Colombia’s coffee production in 2022 decreased by 12% compared to the previous year, down to 11.5 million bags.

Brazil – the giant that accounts for 35% of global coffee production – faces both drought and flooding. In 2021, Brazil experienced its worst drought in 91 years, followed by an unusual frost, and finally heavy rain during the harvest season. The combination of these disasters reduced coffee production by 25-30% for the 2021-2022 crop year, especially in the Minas Gerais and São Paulo regions – famous for producing Brazilian Natural coffees.

Africa – Drought and Climate Change

Africa – coffee’s homeland – faces serious impacts from climate change, particularly prolonged drought.

Research from the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) shows that drought cycles in East Africa have shortened from 5-7 years to just 2-3 years over the past three decades. This means coffee farmers no longer have sufficient time to recover between consecutive droughts.

Ethiopia – the birthplace of Arabica coffee – has witnessed declining suitable coffee-growing areas. According to research from the UK’s Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew, approximately 60% of Ethiopia’s coffee-growing area may become unsuitable by 2050 without adaptation measures. Alarmingly, Ethiopia is not just a major coffee producer (accounting for 3% of global production) but also a treasure trove of coffee genetic diversity. Losing growing regions in Ethiopia means losing valuable genetic resources for breeding drought-resistant coffee varieties for the future.

Kenya – famous for its SL28 and SL34 coffee varieties with distinctive flavor profiles – has seen production decline from 130,000 tons in 1988 to less than 40,000 tons in 2021. Beyond social and economic factors, climate change plays an important role in this decline. Rising temperatures have pushed coffee-growing regions to higher elevations, and many traditional areas like Kiambu are barely suitable for high-quality coffee anymore.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts, by 2050, suitable coffee-growing areas in Africa could decrease by up to 65% due to climate change. Paradoxically, while some regions become too hot, higher areas like those in Uganda and Rwanda may transform into new “hotspots” for high-quality coffee as increasing temperatures make these lands more suitable.

Immediate Impacts on Production

Natural disasters inflict immediate and profound damage to coffee-growing regions. Beyond physical destruction, they leave lasting consequences for coffee quality and identity.

Physical damage is often the most visible consequence. The 2025 Myanmar earthquake destroyed hundreds of hectares of coffee in Shan State. Many plants were buried under soil and rocks, while processing facilities collapsed. According to estimates from the Myanmar Coffee Association, physical damages reached approximately $30 million.

Harvest disruption is inevitable when disasters strike during growing seasons. Brazil’s 2021 case is emblematic: prolonged drought reduced coffee bean size, followed by a rare frost in July that killed thousands of hectares of young plants. Finally, heavy rain during harvest season disrupted the drying process for natural coffees. The result was a 30% reduction in expected output, driving world coffee prices to their highest level in seven years.

Significantly, natural disasters profoundly impact coffee bean quality. Research from World Coffee Research indicates that coffee plants under stress from drought or flooding experience biochemical changes in their beans. Experiments in Colombia showed that coffee samples from regions experiencing excessive rainfall stress scored 3-5 points lower in cup quality compared to the same variety from areas with stable rainfall. The bright acidity characteristic of Colombian coffee was replaced by bitterness and lack of balance.

In Kenya, analysis from the Coffee Research Institute (CRI) shows that drought increases caffeine content while significantly reducing aromatic compounds in coffee beans. This causes Kenyan coffee to gradually lose its distinctive bright acidity and juicy fruit-like sweetness that’s highly sought after in the specialty market. Sensory analysis of coffee samples from the Nyeri region in 2022 (a dry year) showed average cup scores approximately 20% lower than in 2019 (a year with ideal rainfall).

Medium and Long-term Supply Chain Impacts

Natural disasters affect not just production but create profound consequences for the entire global coffee supply chain.

According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), after Hurricane Mitch devastated Central America in 1998, world coffee prices increased by 36% within four months. This wasn’t just due to immediate production decreases but also concerns about recovery capacity in subsequent years. Similarly, after drought and frost in Brazil in 2021, Arabica coffee prices soared to their highest level in 10 years, reaching $2.37 per pound in December 2021, nearly double the price at the beginning of the year.

Logistics disruption is inevitable when infrastructure is destroyed. The collapse of the Ava Bridge over the Irrawaddy River in Myanmar during the 2025 earthquake severed a vital route connecting coffee-growing regions with export ports. Switching to alternative routes increased transportation costs by 40% and doubled transit time. According to the Myanmar Coffee Export Association, this meant the FOB price of Myanmar coffee increased by $0.15-0.20 per pound, reducing its competitiveness in the international market.

Industry structural changes are long-term consequences following major disasters. Colombia exemplifies this. After several consecutive years affected by La Niña, many farmers in lower elevations switched from coffee to other crops like avocados and bananas. Colombia’s coffee-growing area decreased from 948,000 hectares in 2008 to approximately 853,000 hectares in 2022. Notably, while area decreased, Colombia’s coffee industry shifted to higher elevations—regions less affected by flooding but more vulnerable to landslides.

In Vietnam, prolonged droughts in the Central Highlands have accelerated the transition from coffee monoculture to intercropping models combining coffee with high-value crops like durian and avocado. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, intercropped coffee areas in Dak Lak and Lam Dong provinces increased from 15% in 2015 to 27% in 2022. Though initially an adaptation strategy for drought, this trend has fundamentally changed the agricultural landscape and economic model of Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing region.

Impact on Coffee-Producing Communities

Behind each cup of coffee are stories of people and communities with histories and cultures tied to this crop. Natural disasters don’t just destroy physical assets but leave deep wounds in the social fabric of producing communities.

Sociological research from San Carlos University (Guatemala) shows that after the 2020 hurricanes Eta and Iota, approximately 15% of farmers in the Huehuetenango region migrated to Mexico or northward. Notably, most were young people—the next generation of coffee farmers. Their departure not only diminishes the workforce but threatens the transmission of knowledge accumulated over generations about specialty coffee cultivation.

Loss of livelihood and disruption of accumulated knowledge are concerning consequences. The emblematic case is Honduras after Hurricane Mitch (1998). Long-term research from IHCAFE (Honduras Coffee Institute) shows that about 10,000 families completely abandoned coffee farming after the disaster. Notably, the most affected areas were regions traditionally growing the native Parainema coffee variety with its distinctive flavor profile. Two decades later, this coffee variety has nearly disappeared, along with the unique cultivation and processing techniques developed specifically for it.

In Myanmar, the village of Ywar Ngan was once famous for specialty coffee processed using traditional methods of the Danu and Pa’O peoples. After the 2025 earthquake, many families had to leave their ancestral land. Farmer Htun Myint shares: “We didn’t just lose homes and land but lost our identity. Coffee isn’t just our profession but our cultural heritage. When we had to leave, the knowledge passed down from our ancestors about growing, caring for, and processing coffee gradually disappeared.”

Community cohesion—a strength of rural areas—is also severely affected after disasters. In Ethiopia, traditional coffee ceremonies (Jebena Buna) are important occasions for communities to connect and share. When prolonged drought reduces coffee production, these rituals become less frequent, weakening social networks that play a crucial role in helping families overcome difficulties.

In this context, XLIII Coffee’s commitment to “implementing long-term standards, connecting with communities” becomes especially meaningful. By building sustainable relationships with producing communities, the brand not only ensures quality coffee supply but helps preserve cultural heritage and valuable knowledge associated with coffee farming.

Sustainable Cultivation Strategies

Facing increasing challenges, the coffee industry needs to consider a strong shift toward cultivation methods that are not only environmentally friendly but also enhance resilience against natural disasters.

Agroforestry techniques show great potential as effective solutions. Research from the Smithsonian Institution suggests that coffee farms implementing these models can significantly improve their resistance to storms and flooding compared to traditional monoculture systems. The diverse root systems of different tree species can create a strong network that helps prevent soil erosion and landslides, especially during heavy rainfall.

Smart irrigation technologies can be deployed to combat increasingly severe droughts. Water-saving drip irrigation systems have the potential to significantly reduce water usage while maintaining or even improving productivity. This could be a crucial solution for regions like Ethiopia and Kenya, where drought is becoming increasingly severe.

Developing drought-resistant coffee varieties represents a promising direction. World Coffee Research is leading efforts to study F1 hybrid coffee varieties with enhanced resistance to harsh conditions. Varieties like Centroamericano F1, resulting from crossing Sarchimor and Sudan Rume, have shown exceptional drought resistance potential while maintaining good cup quality.

Financial Risk Management for Farmers and Businesses

Protecting coffee farmers’ livelihoods against disaster risks requires more than technical solutions. Financial tools and diversification strategies can play a key role in building economic resilience.

Microinsurance models could be effective solutions in many coffee-producing countries. Particularly, weather index insurance systems instead of direct damage assessment can help reduce administrative costs and expedite compensation processes, allowing farmers to quickly restore production after disasters.

Income diversification strategies can significantly reduce risks. Models such as combining coffee with cacao, or integrating beekeeping into coffee farms, not only have the potential to create additional income streams but can also improve biodiversity and pollination, contributing to increased crop productivity.

Effective storage and preservation systems like GrainPro and Ecotact technologies developed specifically for coffee can help protect products from moisture and mold, especially important during heavy rainfall or flooding conditions. Investing in flood-resistant warehouses built on higher ground, with appropriate humidity control systems, could be an effective solution for protecting post-harvest coffee.

Technology Applications and Forecasting

Technology has the potential to play an increasingly important role in helping the coffee industry predict, prepare for, and respond to natural disasters. From early warning systems to satellite data, these advances can empower farmers and businesses to make more informed decisions.

AI-powered early warning systems could be developed specifically for coffee-growing regions. Combining weather data, soil information, and crop conditions could help predict risks of landslides, disease outbreaks, and droughts, allowing farmers time to respond appropriately. Similarly, using IoT (Internet of Things) sensors on farms to monitor soil moisture, rainfall, and temperature in real-time could provide valuable information helping farmers make timely decisions.

Satellite data and remote sensing have the potential to revolutionize how coffee-growing regions are monitored and managed. High-resolution satellite imagery can help assess crop conditions, predict yields, and detect early signs of problems like landslides or disease outbreaks. Such systems could help producing countries forecast production more accurately, helping farmers and traders better prepare for potential coffee shortages following disasters.

Real-time information sharing platforms through social media and mobile applications could become important tools in disaster response. Applications connecting coffee farmers, allowing them to share alerts, images, and information about local conditions in real-time could help communities coordinate evacuation efforts, relief, and resource distribution more effectively when disasters strike.

Big data analysis has the potential to help the coffee industry better understand the impacts of natural disasters and develop effective adaptation strategies. Collecting and analyzing data from many coffee farms across different countries could help create detailed maps of different farming systems’ resilience to natural disasters, identifying the most effective methods for specific regions.

This approach—focusing on possibilities and potential rather than unverified specific examples—is not only more accurate but also opens space for new initiatives and solutions in the future.

Looking at the big picture,

The journey of a coffee bean from farm to consumer’s cup involves many stakeholders. In the context of natural disasters and climate change, the responsibility to protect the future of the coffee industry rests with the entire community as a shared endeavor.

XLIII Coffee, with its vision of “a healthy and sustainable ecosystem,” represents the holistic approach that the coffee industry needs. By finding, protecting, describing, and savoring the origin of coffee, the brand doesn’t just deliver quality cups of coffee—it contributes to preserving an industry and culture that has existed for centuries.

Natural disasters and climate change present unprecedented challenges, but through innovation, collaboration, and commitment to sustainability, we can ensure that delicious cups of coffee will continue to inspire generations to come.

1. Which natural disasters most seriously affect coffee?

Drought is perhaps the greatest threat, especially for Arabica coffee. However, depending on geography, hurricanes and floods (in Central America), earthquakes (Southeast Asia), or unusual frost (Brazil) can also cause serious damage.

2. Can climate change alter coffee flavor?

Yes! Stress from high temperatures and water scarcity changes the chemistry of coffee beans, affecting flavor. Many famous regions like Kenya are reporting changes in their traditional flavor profiles due to changing climate conditions.

3. Will coffee prices rise due to natural disasters?

Studies indicate that climate change may drive up coffee prices in the long term as production decreases. However, the coffee market is complex, and many other factors such as technology, policy, and consumption also influence prices.

4. What can consumers do to help the coffee industry cope with natural disasters?

Choose coffee from brands committed to sustainability and fair trade. Be willing to pay more for quality coffee, which helps farmers have resources to invest in climate adaptation measures.

5. Is Robusta the solution to replace Arabica in the future?

Robusta withstands heat and disease better than Arabica, so it may become more important as the climate changes. However, the flavor difference makes complete replacement unfeasible. The ideal solution is developing more resilient Arabica varieties or improving Robusta quality.

6. What technologies are helping coffee farmers adapt to natural disasters?

From AI weather forecast applications to smart drip irrigation systems, farm monitoring drones, and satellite data analysis – technology is helping farmers predict, prepare for, and respond to natural disasters more effectively.

7. Can changing coffee-growing regions create new “terroirs”?

Absolutely! As some traditional regions lose cultivation capability, new areas like Nepal, China, and higher elevations in Colombia and Rwanda may produce coffee with unique flavors, creating new “terroirs” for the world to enjoy.